According to an analyst, the level of bank loans in China increased twofold from December 2007 to May 2011 and illustrates as a model case of a credit bubble.
Jim Antos, Mizuho Securities Asia’s analyst, also said that the debt situation of China is not much away from the debt miseries of Greece. He added that on a range of one to ten with Greece being in tenth place in terms of seriousness in debt woes, China falls in eighth place.
While Antos recognized that the loan development rate of China has been divided to 15 percent over the past two years, the volume of lending stretched all through that period still concerns him. In addition, loan banks of the country stood at $6,500 per capita last year compared with its gross domestic product (GDP) of $4,400 per capita, a figure that the analyst said is unachievable.
Antos also cautions the non-performing loans (NPL) of China, which presently stands at one percent of the total loans, are set to rise. He added that some very severe analysts approximate that this can boost to six percent, ten percent and even 15 percent of loans in a few years ahead. While these approximations are all overstated and unlikely, they will surely be observing a slow approach of problem credits in the sector over the next couple of years.
The analyst also added that NPLs can definitely twofold in the next three years. Something that is going to strike the fan beginning two to three years from now but it will not hit them this 2011. While Antos thinks that the core capital ratio of Chinese banks were not a far from the newly increased capital needed from global banking regulators, the analyst still believes that the mainland lenders do not have sufficient capital for the total of risk they have on their books.


